How Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.